Take Your Only Chance
By Mike Lawrence

When your normal line is doomed to fail, you have to ask yourself if there is any layout of the cards that will let you succeed. It may take a bit of imagination to visualize the needed lie of the cards, but if making your contract depends on such a holding to exist, you have to think about what it might be. Then, having done that, you have to decide if it is worthwhile trying for it. You don't want to go down an extra trick if the odds are a thousand to one against your wish coming true.

North South used a brisk route to six spades. It would have been cold against any lead but a diamond.

When West found the killing diamond lead, South no longer had time to set up the clubs. Fortunately, South had one last chance. You might like to think about what that chance is before continuing. I will give you a modest hint. Given the diamond lead, South has a twenty-five percent chance of making six spades.